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Australia Hosting Special ASEAN Regional Summit
SYDNEY - Although Australia isn't a member of ASEAN, the country is hosting a summit of leaders from nine members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.Strengthening economic and security ties will be the focus for the Canberra government, which has set aside $186.7 million to help countries in Southeast Asia and more broadly in the Indo-Pacific region boost their maritime security.Analysts say Au.....»»
Special ASEAN Regional Summit in Australia
SYDNEY - Although Australia isn't a member of ASEAN, the country is hosting a summit of leaders from nine members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.Strengthening economic and security ties will be the focus for the Canberra government, which has set aside $186.7 million to help countries in Southeast Asia and more broadly in the Indo-Pacific region boost their maritime security.Analysts say Au.....»»
Australia Hosting Special ASEAN Regional Summit
SYDNEY - Although Australia isn't a member of ASEAN, the country is hosting a summit of leaders from nine members of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations.Strengthening economic and security ties will be the focus for the Canberra government, which has set aside $186.7 million to help countries in Southeast Asia and more broadly in the Indo-Pacific region boost their maritime security.Analysts say Au.....»»
Indonesia s Prabowo Likely to Keep Close Ties With China
Taipei, Taiwan - Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, once a fierce critic of China, has emerged as the likely winner of Indonesia's presidential election. His presumed victory, analysts say, is unlikely to lead to any major shifts in the Southeast Asian nation's relations with Beijing.However, concerns about work safety and environmental pollution linked to Chinese investments, as well as Beijing's claims in the.....»»
Indonesia s Prabowo Likely to Keep Close Ties With China
Taipei, Taiwan - Defense Minister Prabowo Subianto, once a fierce critic of China, has emerged as the likely winner of Indonesia's presidential election. His presumed victory, analysts say, is unlikely to lead to any major shifts in the Southeast Asian nation's relations with Beijing.However, concerns about work safety and environmental pollution linked to Chinese investments, as well as Beijing's claims in the.....»»
Japan strengthens security partnerships with ASEAN nations to contain China: Analysts
Washington DC [US], December 15 (ANI):Japan has been enhancing its security ties with various Southeast Asian nations ahead of a Japan-ASEAN summit that is scheduled to be held in Tokyo from December 16-18. According to analysts, this forum is being held to offset China's aggressive behaviour in the region, VOA News reported. Japan will host the ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit in Tokyo marking the 50th anniversary of ASE.....»»
Japan strengthens security partnerships with ASEAN nations to contain China: Analysts
Washington DC [US], December 15 (ANI):Japan has been enhancing its security ties with various Southeast Asian nations ahead of a Japan-ASEAN summit that is scheduled to be held in Tokyo from December 16-18. According to analysts, this forum is being held to offset China's aggressive behaviour in the region, VOA News reported. Japan will host the ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit in Tokyo marking the 50th anniversary of ASE.....»»
Analysts: Japan Strengthening ASEAN Security Ties to Contain China
washington - Tokyo has been expanding its security ties with multiple Southeast Asian countries ahead of a Japan-ASEAN summit that analysts see as a forum to offset China's aggressive behavior in the region.Japan is scheduled to host the ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit in Tokyo from Saturday to Monday, marking the 50th anniversary of ASEAN-Japan friendship and cooperation.Japan and 10 ASEAN countries see.....»»
Analysts: Japan Strengthening ASEAN Security Ties to Contain China
washington - Tokyo has been expanding its security ties with multiple Southeast Asian countries ahead of a Japan-ASEAN summit that analysts see as a forum to offset China's aggressive behavior in the region.Japan is scheduled to host the ASEAN-Japan Commemorative Summit in Tokyo from Saturday to Monday, marking the 50th anniversary of ASEAN-Japan friendship and cooperation.Japan and 10 ASEAN countries see.....»»
Oil prices jump as Hamas attack on Israel fuels supply fears
Oil prices rallied while the dollar and yen advanced Monday after Hamas launched a shock attack on Israel at the weekend, sparking fresh concerns about tensions in the Middle East. The crisis fanned concerns about supplies of crude from the region at a time when supply worries are already high owing to Saudi Arabia and Russia's output cuts. It has also renewed fears about the impact on inflation, with energy costs a key driver of spiking prices, giving a fresh headache to central banks as they try to ease up on interest rate hikes to avoid recessions. The surprise attack and Israel's declaration of war in response to it have left more than 1,000 dead and raised concerns that a potential broadening of the conflict could draw in the United States and Iran. "Key for markets is whether the conflict remains contained or spreads to involve other regions, particularly Saudi Arabia," said ANZ Group's Brian Martin and Daniel Hynes. "Initially at least, it seems markets will assume the situation will remain limited in scope, duration, and oil-price consequences. But higher volatility can be expected." Both main contracts surged more than five percent in early Asian business before easing back as the day wore on. However, SPI Asset Management's Stephen Innes warned: "Historical analysis suggests that oil prices tend to experience sustained gains after the Middle East crises. "Meanwhile, stocks tend to eventually recover and trend higher after an initial period of volatility. Safe-haven assets like gold and Treasurys, which initially see gains during such crises, tend to fade from their initial price spikes as the situation stabilizes. "But with Middle East analysts considering this to be a pivotal moment for Israel, the view looks incendiary in any current scenario." A decidedly risk-off mood also saw investors push into the safety of the dollar, which was up against the pound and euro, as well as the Australian and New Zealand dollars. The yen, considered one of the safest currencies, strengthened against the greenback, though it still remains locked around 11-month lows. Gold, another key haven, gained more than one percent. Equity markets were mixed, with Shanghai dropping on its first day back after a week-long holiday as investors continue to fret over the stuttering Chinese economy. There were also losses in Mumbai, Singapore, Manila, Bangkok and Wellington, though Hong Kong rose as it opened in the afternoon, having been closed in the morning owing to a typhoon. Sydney and Jakarta eked out gains. Tokyo was closed for a holiday. London edged up at the open while Paris and Frankfurt were lower. The tepid performance came despite a rally on Wall Street, where traders welcomed data showing a forecast-busting jump in new jobs but wage growth slowing. The "Goldilocks" figures -- neither too strong nor too weak -- lifted optimism the world's top economy can avoid a recession even as the Federal Reserve keeps rates elevated. Still, there are worries the bank will hike one more time before the end of the year, with officials determined to bring inflation to heel and keep it at their two percent target. Key figures around 0715 GMT West Texas Intermediate: UP 3.5 percent at $85.69 per barrel Brent North Sea crude: UP 3.1 percent at $87.23 per barrel Hong Kong - Hang Seng Index: UP 0.4 percent at 17,552.01 Shanghai - Composite: DOWN 0.4 percent at 3,096.92 (close) London - FTSE 100: UP 0.3 percent at 7,518.16 Tokyo - Nikkei 225: Closed for a holiday Euro/dollar: DOWN at $1.0540 from $1.0588 on Friday Pound/dollar: DOWN at $1.2195 from $1.2234 Dollar/yen: DOWN at 149.15 yen from 149.30 yen Euro/pound: DOWN at 86.49 pence from 86.52 pence New York - Dow: UP 0.9 percent at 33,407.58 (close) (Bloomberg News contributed to this story) The post Oil prices jump as Hamas attack on Israel fuels supply fears appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Vietnam economy grows 5.3% in third quarter
Vietnam's economy grew 5.3 percent on-year in the third quarter, official data showed Friday, though experts warned it was on course to miss an ambitious year-end target. Loan interest rate reductions, an extension of tax payments and increased public investment had a positive impact, the General Statistics Office said. But analysts warn it will be an uphill battle for the clothing, shoes and electronics manufacturing hub to reach a year-end target of 6.5 percent expansion for 2023. "Vietnam would only reach a year-end economic growth of between 4.5 percent and 4.7 percent, much lower than the government's set target," Rong Viet Stocks Company chief economist Tran Thi Ha My told AFP. "Growth for the fourth quarter is expected to be at around six percent... largely thanks to improved industrial production and exports." According to GSO, a slump in demand hit the country's exports. One of Vietnam's largest shoemakers for brands such as Nike, Adidas and Reebok announced in August it would cut jobs for the third time this year. Vietnam earned nearly $260 billion in the first nine months from exports. The communist state has long been a success story among Asian economies and in 2022, its economy grew eight percent. The Asian Development Bank predicts 5.8 percent growth for Vietnam's year-end figure, "mainly due to weak external demand". "Weak external environment, including from a subdued recovery in the People's Republic of China, has hampered export-led manufacturing, thus shrinking industrial production in Vietnam," the bank’s Vietnam country director Shantanu Chakraborty said this week. "The economy remains resilient, and recovery is expected to pick up in the near term, driven by strong domestic consumption, which is supported by moderate inflation, an acceleration of public investment and improved trade activities." The GSO reported that 776,000 more laborers in Vietnam have found jobs since the beginning of the year, compared with the same period last year. Average monthly income was around $288, nearly seven percent higher, GSO said. The post Vietnam economy grows 5.3% in third quarter appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Long-game scenario
Employing lawfare and so-called grey zone tactics may point to China preparing for the long haul, according to experts. The tactic involves wearing down its opponents in the South China Sea conflict while waiting for a suitable administration in the United States, which would again give less importance to America’s stabilizing role in the Asia-Pacific region. China’s preparations for a protracted conflict are evident in its latest moves, from making public the 10-dash line claim, the absence of Chinese President Xi Jinping from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations Summit in Jakarta, and the water spraying by a Chinese Coast Guard vessel of a Philippine Navy boat on a mission to resupply the grounded Sierra Madre. Regional analysts said China is employing a combination of lawfare, which is the use of legal systems and institutions to undermine an opponent, and gray zone tactics, which are maneuvers short of war that point to a conflict for the long haul. China’s drafting of a new map was timed to reassert its territorial claims and flex its muscles ahead of the ASEAN and G20 Summits. It did gain a measure of success as in the joint statements customarily issued at the end of the events; there was no explicit mention of China despite most members of the regional blocs expressing concerns about its assertive actions in the disputed waters. Collin Koh, a senior fellow at the S Rajaratnam School of International Studies based at Nanyang Technological University in Singapore, said the elephant in the room, amid the increasing aggressiveness of the Asian giant, was China’s undergoing multiple crises. Koh said that while lawfare and maritime coercion have been part and parcel of Beijing’s toolkit in the past, “there has been an obvious uptick that coincided with China’s domestic problems, which are property market woes, high youth unemployment, and sluggish exports.” For instance, during the term of former President Rodrigo Duterte, “the Philippines was subjected to boat swarming tactics similar to those recently seen.” The use of such methods intensified after the Philippines announced an expanded Enhanced Defense Cooperation Agreement with the United States, which Beijing interpreted as one of America’s efforts to intervene in its conflict with Taiwan. For China, digging in and preparing for a long engagement is beneficial. At Ayungin Shoal, China has been blocking Philippine missions to repair the dilapidated landing ship grounded there since it knows that the rusting hull would not last too long and nature will take care of its eventual removal. It can simply wear down the country’s resolve until it abandons its hold on the shoal, or so China believes. China is trying to prevent a united stand in the region since lawfare can be matched by counter-lawfare, such as by tightening existing legal maritime provisions or creating new ones in line with international law to assert the other claimant nations’ interests, according to geopolitical experts. ASEAN has inherent structural limitations make it challenging to take a united position on the South China Sea disputes. China exploits these limitations, such as the ASEAN decision-making process, where a disagreement by one member defeats a unified stand of the 10-nation group. Thus, the role of powers outside the region remains more important than ever to backstop the efforts to maintain stability while following international law. Previous talk about matching the military prowess of China, particularly for the long haul, would be impossible for the Philippines. This was why the alliance with the United States through EDCA was strengthened — to give the Philippines the minimum defense capability against aggressors. The post Long-game scenario appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Analysts predict inflation rate at around 5.0% for August
The country's inflation rate will remain above the government's 2 to 4 percent target band, said private sector economists who slightly upgraded their price-rise forecasts for August. A DAILY TRIBUNE poll of analysts over the weekend yielded a median estimate of 5.0 percent for August inflation, within the 4.8 to 5.6 percent forecast given by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) last Thursday. If the August number matches the poll consensus, the median estimate will be higher than the 4.6 percent print in July 2023 but lower than the 5.4 percent inflation rate in June 2023. The Philippine Statistics Authority is expected to release the August inflation data on Tuesday, 5 September. Bank of the Philippine Islands's lead economist Emilio "Jun" Neri Jr. said higher prices of liquefied petroleum gas (LPG), kerosene, diesel and vegetables likely drove the Consumer Price Index much higher month-on-month. "Lower electricity (and) other food items may offset some of this," Neri said in an email to Daily Tribune. Rizal Commercial Banking Corp. chief economist Michael Ricafort said that the country's higher local palay and rice prices are one of the "main catalysts" for the August inflation print due to weather disturbances in most Southeast Asian countries affecting rice exports. He added that the agriculture damages caused by tropical storms in Northern and Central Luzon likewise affected the prices in the country. Ricafort likewise attributed the higher fuel prices and depreciating Philippine Peso against the US Dollar to the slightly higher inflation rate for August. "However, these are offset by mostly softer economic data in China and other countries, as partly weighed by higher inflation that reduced household spending and higher interest rates that led to higher borrowing costs," Ricafort said in a Viber message. Security Bank's senior assistant vice president and chief economist Robert Dan Roces also shared the same insights with other economists, saying that the primary factors contributing to the slight increase in the August inflation print are fuel and food prices. "Although the current diesel pump price is significantly lower than the P75 per liter average recorded in June of the previous year, food and fuel prices remain the main drivers of inflation. Notably, farm gate prices of other food items decreased in August compared to July," Roces said in an email. Despite these factors, Roces said the retailers may either be reluctant to reduce current prices or the price reduction price may be taking some time. Roces also underscored that the current inflation increase is mainly driven by the price of rice, which has recently surged by up to P10 per kilo. "Looking ahead, we still see that inflation will fall into the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas (BSP) target range of 2 percent to 4 percent by the fourth quarter of this year, barring sustained spikes in rice and fuel in the remaining months of 2023," Roces said. China Banking Corp. chief economist Domini Velasquez said core inflation is expected to continue its downtrend to around 6.0 percent in August despite the projected higher headline rate. "If realized, we do not expect BSP to react immediately to the expected inflation print with higher policy rates. Shocks for August were largely supply-side but have not, so far, detailed the inflation path toward the target range in (the fourth quarter). We still expect inflation to fall within the BSP's target by November," Velasquez said. The post Analysts predict inflation rate at around 5.0% for August appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Battle for the Arctic
The Arctic is a very sensitive environmental area. They say that if the Arctic sneezes, the whole world catches a cold. The Arctic also holds vast amounts of oil and gas. Energy is the arch-enemy of the Environment. The Arctic Council was established in 1996 in the Ottawa Declaration “as a high-level forum to provide a means for promoting cooperation, coordination and interaction among the (eight founding) Arctic States” (arctic-council.org). The eight Arctic States are Canada, Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, Russia, Sweden and the United States. For some reason, Greenland, the largest island, was not among the eight. The agreement stood until the war in Ukraine. The international spirit of cooperation suddenly vanished. The war in Ukraine made everyone edgy, with two factors as catalysts — energy and security. An intense energy crisis ensued. And security concerns triggered polarizations similar to the ones that preceded World Wars I and II, namely, between the East, led by Russia and China, and the West, led by US-NATO-EU. There was panic over getting new energy resources, and, in fear of wars, panic over procuring new sophisticated weapons, such as hypersonic missiles, killer drones, precision lasers that can take out satellites. Weapons makers like the US and Russia had a field day selling arms to allies. There is now a sudden focus on the vast energy resources of the Arctic, with its billions of dollars in untapped oil and gas — about 13 percent of the world’s oil and about 30 percent of the world’s gas — not to mention uranium, gold, and rare metals, all sitting there under the primordial ice. No wonder the environment is no longer a concern — it has been replaced by the lust for energy. The Arctic Circle The military map above gives an overview situationer on the Arctic Circle. (Source: International Institute for Strategic Studies — Arctic Portal.) There is UN-NATO in the west and Russia in the east. There are two existing shipping routes — the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage — which converge at the northern tip of the Arctic Circle. There is a third Future Trans Arctic Route in between west and east. There are 27 US-NATO bases in the west, in blue, and 28 Russian bases in the east, in black. The US-NATO bases are scattered over a wide area, while the Russian bases are concentrated along its northern shores. Note the concentration of both East and West bases in the Norway-Finland area where they face each other eyeball-to-eyeball. Many geopolitical and military analysts consider this the powder-keg for future confrontations. US-NATO cannot build bases near the Russian shorelines, so they concentrated their bases in the Norway–Finland chokepoint. Current energy extractions Russia leads the pack in energy extraction. Its turf covers about 40 percent of the Arctic Circle and 53 percent of coastal areas. There are about two million Russians living in the Arctic Circle in thriving mining communities servicing Liquid Natural Gas Projects 1 and 2. Project 1 is the Yamal LNG Plant. Project 2 is the newer $21-billion Arctic LNG2 Plan, whose goal is to extract 19.8 tons of LNG a year. Global warming has melted a considerable amount of Arctic ice in the last decade, which has triggered a more frenzied exploration and mining among the Arctic States. This is especially true for the ice corridor north of the Russian coastal area, which has triggered more daring Russian ships cutting through the melting ice. There is a 21,000-kilometer passage for Russian ships to bring their export gas to Asian markets through the Suez Canal, a long arduous route through the West, which makes the gas more expensive to deliver. Because of the melting ice, Russia now has an alternative of 13,000 kilometers through the east, 40 percent shorter than the western route. The mining activities of the Western nations will be covered in the next article due to space limitations. Future conflicts The goal of the Arctic military bases is defensive, namely, to protect the mining activities. But an Arctic encounter can be catalyzed by trigger-happy generals, or even by accidental encounters, which have happened before. The first step towards the nuclearization of the Arctic is the introduction of small tactical nukes, similar to those in Belarus, facing Poland, which can be an option if one of two contending forces is “cornered.” Tactical nukes may draw an equal response from the other side in a rapid escalation. Once tactical nukes proliferate on both sides, and an incident occurs, the next steps are the big ICBMs and the war with no winners. The post Battle for the Arctic appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
DoF: Rural banks should adopt tech
Rural banks must speed up the integration of digital services in their systems to allow more Filipinos to obtain various financial services, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno said. “The digital divide has continued to widen, leaving vulnerable sectors of the society on the margins of economic progress,” Diokno said in a statement shared Monday by the Rural Bankers Association of the Philippines. RBAP has at least 400 members and is celebrating their rural banking consciousness week until Saturday with the theme “Rural Banks: Ensuring that No Juan is Left Behind in the Age of Digitalization.” He stressed the digital gap in banking among Filipinos is evident despite the rise of digital technologies in banking, including mobile apps and the cloud system which is an online data-sharing tool and computer programs manager. A 2022 survey by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas showed 55 banks could adopt digital technologies efficiently. “With accelerated adoption of digital technologies in recent years, access to financial services and critical information has never been more readily available to the general public. DoF supports RBAP’s initiative to integrate financial technologies in their services to expand access to formal credit,” the finance chief said. Opportunity to expand services Citing the performance of ASA Philippines, a microfinance lender to rural entrepreneurs, the Asian Development Bank said rural banks could expand their loan portfolios by over 50 percent using cloud technology. To help modernize the systems of rural banks, global market analyst McKinsey & Company said foreign expertise and resources can be tapped to reach over 71 million Internet users in the Philippines and the projected growth in Filipinos with bank accounts from 50.3 million to 85 million by 2030. “The underserved rural sector is well suited to digital-first or hybrid offerings, and recent changes to onboarding requirements and agent-banking rules are designed to enable digital service providers to maximize the impact of the country’s limited rural banking infrastructure,” McKinsey analysts said. The post DoF: Rural banks should adopt tech appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
U.S. must step up too
American analysts have been exploring the possible ways the West Philippine Sea conflict will play out primarily with the so-called “gray zone” maneuvers by China in the disputed waters in which non-military activities are employed for coercion. The United States Institute of Peace, or USIP, a federal body tasked with promoting conflict resolution and prevention worldwide, is reviewing ways that Washington can play a role in de-escalating the tension in the region. The review was sparked by an act of aggression last week when a Chinese Coast Guard vessel deployed a water cannon to redirect an unarmed Philippine Navy supply boat. China blamed the incident on the Philippine government’s continued defiance of an earlier understanding to ban the delivery of construction materials to the beached BRP Sierra Madre navy vessel at Ayungin Shoal. Tensions have been on the rise since last year on China’s perception that Manila was moving closer to Washington, prompting a more aggressive assertion of its claim over most of the West Philippine Sea. “Given that Washington and Manila have a mutual defense treaty, there is credible concern that an incident like this could trigger a wider US-China conflict,” according to the USIP. Under a new Philippine administration, the formerly conciliatory approach the country had taken in its dispute with China has shifted. Instead, Brian Harding, USIP senior expert for Southeast Asia and Pacific Islands, said President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. has highlighted China’s efforts to swarm and intimidate fishing and coast guard vessels to take the bold move of deepening defense ties with the United States, bringing China-Philippines ties to a new low. Ayungin Shoal, the USIP expert said, has long been a likely candidate for the first showdown between the Philippines and China since Beijing took control of Scarborough Shoal in 2012. Former Supreme Court Senior Associate Justice Antonio Carpio also identified the shoal, in a speech the other day, as one of five possible flashpoints that may lead to a deeper maritime conflict. In 1999, the Philippines intentionally beached a World War II naval vessel on a submerged reef, located within the Philippines’ exclusive economic zone, and has since maintained a small contingent of Marines on board in extremely austere conditions. As a practical matter, in recent years China has turned a blind eye to the Philippines replenishing supplies for the Marines but has blocked the delivery of materials that could be used to repair the ship. USIP’s Andrew Scobell, a China expert, said the recent aggressive actions of a large China Coast Guard vessel on a tiny Filipino Navy supply boat was merely the latest episode in a decades-long campaign of intimidation and coercion by Beijing. Based on its insisted-on nine-dash line boundaries, Beijing claims the right to restrict access to ships from other countries to the South China Sea. “Many of (China’s) white-hulled ships are far larger, much better equipped, and more intimidating than the gray hull naval vessels possessed by most Southeast Asian states,” USIP said. China has persisted in its well-orchestrated campaign of low-intensity conflict, what is widely called “gray zone” actions, to forcefully advance its claims and aggressively push back against rivals. Carla Freeman, a senior USIP expert on China, said that beyond the effort to persuade and deter China, the US should engage in diplomacy to encourage allies and partners in the region to make clear to Beijing their own concerns about the risks to peace posed by confrontation. Regional allies have already issued statements criticizing China’s behavior, with Tokyo using unusually strong language to condemn China’s conduct, the USIP said. Like the Philippines’ position, the USIP said that Washington’s efforts in support of a binding code of conduct, or CoC, would be key to preventing conflict. The USIP, nonetheless, sees as a major obstacle toward progress in the United States itself since it is limited in its diplomatic capabilities after it failed to ratify the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea. Taking the high road in the simmering conflict, thus, would need both the US and China to review their positions of leadership to keep the stability in the region. The post U.S. must step up too appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Malaysia’s Anwar thwarts opposition challenge in state polls
Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim's ruling coalition thwarted a challenge by an opposition alliance in state elections, official results showed Sunday, with analysts saying the win would buy him time to consolidate power in the largely Islamic Southeast Asian nation. Saturday's vote in six states had been the toughest political challenge yet to Anwar, who was appointed prime minister in November last year to head a unity government after an indecisive general election. The election of state assembly members does not affect Anwar's current two-thirds majority in parliament. It was, however, widely seen as a barometer of support for Anwar, including his push for a more inclusive society in which minority ethnicities could be allowed greater participation in the largely Malay Muslim nation, which also has large Chinese and Indian populations. Results released by the Election Commission showed that Anwar's Pakatan Harapan coalition retained three states: Selangor, Penang, and Negeri Sembilan. The opposition alliance Perikatan Nasional -- whose key member the PAS party aims to create a theocratic state in Malaysia -- kept its hold on Kedah, Terengganu, and Kelantan. Retaining Selangor, which hosts the country’s biggest port, and Penang, home to Malaysia’s thriving semiconductor industry, are prized wins for Anwar, analysts said. The ruling coalition, however, lost its two-thirds majority in Selangor, as the opposition made strong inroads. Perikatan is backed by the Malaysian Islamic Party, or PAS, whose strong performance in last year’s general elections had sparked ruling party concerns it could spring a surprise and flip one or two states to the opposition. "This is a decision of the people. We have to respect this decision," Anwar said of the results at a late-night press conference as he also appealed for unity after a divisive campaign. "The federal government remains strong after this poll and we will continue to promote a prosperous Malaysia," he added. Oh Ei Sun of the Pacific Research Center of Malaysia think tank said "it was a nail-biting win for Anwar after he thwarted the challenge from the powerful Islamic party PAS". Bridget Welsh, a Malaysia expert from the University of Nottingham, said retaining the three states was a "victory for Anwar" as "he had gone into this campaign defensively". "It was in many ways a stress reliever for Anwar not to be confronted with any major political shifts that could alter the status quo," said Mustafa Izzuddin, a political analyst with consultancy Solaris Strategies Singapore. But the outcome was also a disappointment in that "his coalition did not make much significant inroads" at the polls, he told AFP. Anwar "has more than enough time" before the 2027 general elections "to shore up support including the complex political bargaining that may need to happen within the coalition", according to Mustafa. No guarantee James Chin, a Malaysia expert at the University of Tasmania in Australia, had warned earlier Saturday of "dire" consequences if Anwar lost even a single state, including shifting allegiances that could have threatened his future as prime minister. Anwar became prime minister last November after a long struggle as an opposition leader. His party had won the most seats in the general election but fell short of the outright majority needed to form a government. That forced him into an alliance with former foes in the United Malays National Organisation to secure a two-thirds parliamentary majority and approval from Malaysia's king to form a "unity government". The coalition has so far held together in a country that had seen three leadership turnovers in as many years after scandal-tainted Najib Razak was voted out as prime minister in 2018 over massive corruption at state fund 1MDB. But Oh, the analyst, said Anwar "must remain vigilant" even as he pushes for reforms. "There is no guarantee that his government will stay until the next general elections," he said. The post Malaysia’s Anwar thwarts opposition challenge in state polls appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
US stocks extend rally as bank earnings top estimates
Global stocks mostly rose Tuesday, with the Dow index in New York lodging its seventh straight gain, as solid banking earnings helped extend a market rally. Shares of Morgan Stanley, Bank of America, and Charles Schwab all surged after their results topped estimates. Following a positive day on European bourses, Wall Street stocks had a muted start to the session on mixed US economic data. But for the second day in a row, US indices gained momentum as the session progressed. The S&P 500 finished 0.7 percent higher. "The theme for today with the banks is 'better than feared,'" said Steve Sosnick of Interactive Brokers. "Unless the news is actively disappointing, everything is being taken as good news." Sosnick described the market as in "a full-fledged rally mode." Data out Tuesday showed that US retail sales edged 0.2 percent higher last month, below analyst expectations. Craig Erlam, senior market analyst at trading platform OANDA, said an upward revision of May figures helped balance out the June underperformance. "I'm not convinced today's data really changes things as far as the consumer or economy is concerned, all things considered, nor has it really changed anything on interest rate expectations, with markets almost fully pricing in a hike next week and probably no more after that," he said. Meanwhile, US industrial output fell by a more-than-expected 0.5 percent last month. In Asia, trading was still dominated by Monday's disappointing Chinese GDP growth figures. "Traders are concerned about economic numbers from China and... remain on the edge," noted Zaye Capital Markets analyst Naeem Aslam. And while there is an expectation that more stimulus measures are in the pipeline, other analysts warned that leaders were limited in how far they could go. The figures came after last week's reports showing inflation had flatlined, suggesting China was on the brink of a period of painful deflation, while exports plunged for a second straight month. Hong Kong led Asian losses on Tuesday, shedding more than two percent following a five-day rally, as it reopened a day after being shut because of a severe storm. Shanghai, Sydney, Seoul, Singapore, Manila, Jakarta, Wellington, and Taipei also dropped, though Tokyo, Mumbai, and Bangkok edged higher. The post US stocks extend rally as bank earnings top estimates appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Divided ASEAN condemns Myanmar violence again, supports five-point plan
ASEAN foreign ministers on Thursday condemned violence in Myanmar again and repeated support for a peace plan ignored by its junta rulers, as the divided bloc struggled to find unity over the protracted crisis. Myanmar has been ravaged by deadly violence since a military coup ousted Aung San Suu Kyi's government in February 2021, unleashing a bloody crackdown on dissent. A joint communique finally arrived late Thursday, more than a day after a two-day Association of Southeast Asian Nations ministerial meeting ended as the fractured group wrangled over its content and wording. It said a five-point plan agreed with Myanmar's junta two years ago -- which they have failed to implement -- remained the bloc's best hope of solving the crisis, despite Thailand launching a separate track to ASEAN efforts in recent months. "We... reaffirmed our united position that the five-point consensus remains our main reference to address the political crisis in Myanmar," it said. "We strongly condemned acts of violence, including air strikes, artillery shelling, and destruction of public facilities and urged all parties involved to take concrete action to immediately halt indiscriminate violence (and) denounce any escalation." It asked all sides of the Myanmar conflict to "create a conducive environment for the delivery of humanitarian assistance and inclusive national dialogue." ASEAN chair Indonesia had on Wednesday urged a political solution to the crisis at two-day foreign minister talks. But more than two years after the coup, the divided 10-member bloc's peace efforts remain fruitless, as the junta ignores international criticism and refuses to engage with its opponents. A Southeast Asian diplomat attending the meetings told AFP on condition of anonymity the delay was because they were "working on the language on Myanmar". An early draft seen by AFP on Tuesday had left a section on Myanmar blank. The diplomat said some countries wanted outright re-engagement with the junta, while others said the five-point plan that aims to end the violence and renew talks must remain the basis for re-engagement. This confirmed the "deep divisions within ASEAN on the Myanmar issue", the diplomat added. Thai dialogue track Thailand has made its own initiative to speak directly with the Myanmar junta and other actors in the conflict. Last month, Bangkok hosted the junta's foreign minister for controversial "informal talks" that further split the bloc. Then on Wednesday, on the second day of ASEAN talks, Thailand's top diplomat announced that he met last week with Suu Kyi -- who has been detained since the coup, and jailed by a junta court for a total of 33 years. Don Pramudwinai said he met the Nobel laureate on Sunday in Myanmar's capital Naypyidaw and that she was in "good health" and "encouraged dialogue". Don "freely discussed what he wanted" with Suu Kyi, junta spokesman Zaw Min Tun said in an audio statement posted by the military's information team Thursday, adding that her health was "good". On Thursday, Don told reporters: "It has been two years now, (and) not much improvement. So there must be re-engagement with Myanmar." 'Safe, stable, prosperous' Indonesia has said any other efforts must support ASEAN's existing five-point peace plan. Malaysian Foreign Minister Zambry Abdul Kadir told reporters that all members were working towards the "same issue", which was ensuring that Southeast Asia was "a region that is safe, stable and prosperous". Indonesian Foreign Minister Retno Marsudi said Jakarta had engaged in "quiet diplomacy" with all sides of the conflict, and in its seven months as chair had held more than 110 engagements concerning Myanmar. But analysts said Thailand was taking the lead on the crisis, undercutting ASEAN efforts and shifting the centre of negotiation to Bangkok. A Thai foreign ministry official declined to comment on Indonesia's work as ASEAN chair. The post Divided ASEAN condemns Myanmar violence again, supports five-point plan appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Myanmar crisis to top agenda at ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting
ASEAN foreign ministers will gather in Indonesia on Tuesday for talks set to be dominated by the crisis in Myanmar, with the regional bloc divided over how or whether to reengage with the coup-wracked country's ruling junta. The two-day Association of Southeast Asian Nations meeting will be followed by talks with Beijing, Washington, and other powers where top US diplomat Antony Blinken will seek to push back on China's assertiveness in the South China Sea. ASEAN has long been decried as a toothless talking shop, and it remains split over diplomatic attempts to resolve the Myanmar crisis. The country has been ravaged by deadly violence since a military coup deposed Aung San Suu Kyi's government more than two years ago and unleashed a bloody crackdown on dissent. A Southeast Asian diplomat told AFP that "extra efforts" were being made in the days before the meeting to unite the group around the issue. However, the official was "not too optimistic" that would happen given that a "few members have different perspectives on how to approach the problem", they said. Myanmar remains an ASEAN member but has been barred from high-level meetings over the junta's failure to implement a five-point plan, agreed two years ago, to end the violence and restart negotiations to resolve the crisis. ASEAN efforts to kick-start the plan's execution have been fruitless, as the junta ignores international criticism and refuses to engage with its opponents. Thailand, meanwhile, hosted the junta's foreign minister for controversial "informal talks" last month, deepening the divisions between the ASEAN members that attended and abstained. 'Clearer' plan The bloc's initiatives are limited by its charter principles of consensus and noninterference, but analysts say the meeting could push members to do more. "It is hoped there will be a clearer implementation plan on what will ASEAN do going forward," Lina Alexandra of Jakarta-based think tank the Centre for Strategic and International Studies told AFP. The meeting would be a "crucial" opportunity for Indonesia as ASEAN chair to unite the regional bloc after the Thailand talks, she said. On Thursday, an ASEAN-plus-three ministerial meeting with Japan, South Korea, and China will take place ahead of an 18-nation East Asia Summit foreign ministers' meeting on Friday, which will also include Washington and Beijing. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov is expected to attend the latter meeting, again putting him in the same room as US Secretary of State Blinken after a brief March meeting as Moscow's Ukraine invasion grinds on. Beijing's actions in the dispute-rife South China Sea will also be high on the agenda, Daniel Kritenbrink, the top US diplomat for East Asia, told reporters Saturday. China has made sweeping claims in the strategic waterway despite protests from ASEAN members Vietnam and the Philippines, as well as other nations who argue for unimpeded freedom of navigation and that their own territorial claims be respected. The United States and ASEAN will seek to "push back on behavior that runs counter to that vision and to those principles, including the many irresponsible acts that we've seen carried out by China over the last several years", Kritenbrink said. The post Myanmar crisis to top agenda at ASEAN foreign ministers’ meeting appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»