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SWS poll: More Filipino families felt poor as inflation quickened
Filipino families who called themselves poor rose slightly to 12.9 million in December 2022, according to a Social Weather Stations survey, as inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in 14 years that month......»»
Government sees inflation s peak as it misses target for second straight year
Inflation accelerated to its fastest pace in 14 years in December......»»
Pause or hike? ECB rate decision on a knife edge
The European Central Bank is walking a tightrope between still-high inflation and a darkening eurozone outlook as it decides whether to lift interest rates again or finally pause its historic hiking cycle. Whether to raise borrowing costs for a 10th straight time when they meet Thursday is shaping up to be rate-setters trickiest decision since the tightening campaign began. The central bank for the 20 countries that use the euro has already lifted rates by 4.25 percentage points since July last year to combat runaway consumer prices. But the Frankfurt institution now finds itself in a "difficult spot," HSBC said in a note, as officials struggle to digest competing data. On one hand prospects for the single currency area are looking bleaker, particularly due to a poor performance in its biggest economy, Germany, which sank into a recession over the winter and is struggling to climb out of it. Latest data showed eurozone second-quarter growth reached just 0.1 percent, lower than previously estimated, while a recent survey pointed to the economy contracting at its fastest rate in three years as a manufacturing slowdown spread to services. The weak data has fuelled calls for the ECB to pause the aggressive hiking cycle for fear it could deepen a downturn, and President Christine Lagarde finally opened the door to doing so at the bank's last meeting in July. Eye-watering inflation But consumer prices, which began surging after Russia's invasion of Ukraine due to galloping energy costs, continue to rise strongly. This would support arguments for another hike to borrowing costs, with the aim of further depressing demand and slowing inflation. Consumer price rises came in unchanged at 5.3 percent in August, way above the ECB's two percent target, although closely-watched core inflation -- excluding volatile energy and food prices -- eased a little. While inflation has slowed since last year as energy costs fall, officials are now worried that other factors, particularly wage increases in a tight labor market, are keeping it elevated. The data makes for a "very complicated mixed bag," said ING economist Carsten Brzeski. "We expect a very heated debate with a close outcome." Brzeski said he expected the 26-member governing council to opt for one final increase, which would take the closely-watched deposit rate to a record high. Other analysts, however, are betting on a pause on Thursday, although they also think the ECB might then impose one final hike at a later meeting. This would be similar to what the US Federal Reserve has done -- taking a break in June before resuming lifting rates again in July. The Fed and the Bank of England are due to hold their next meetings the week after the ECB. Hawks versus doves ECB officials have insisted their decision will depend on incoming data, which has put the focus on updated forecasts the central bank is also due to release on Thursday. In the run-up to the meeting, they have mostly been cagey about what will happen, a contrast to other recent meetings where the decision was usually well-telegraphed in advance. And mixed signals have emerged in recent days. Governing council member Peter Kazimir called for another 25-basis-point hike, with the Slovak central bank chief writing in an op-ed it is "better to be safe than sorry". But another member, Italian central bank boss Ignazio Visco, disagreed with those who think it is better to overdo it, rather than undershoot, while ECB chief economist Philip Lane welcomed signs inflation was easing in some areas. Analysts stressed it was far from clear whether the "hawks", backers of further tightening, or "doves" -- proponents of a pause -- would prevail on Thursday. But if they do choose to lift rates, it will likely be "the final hike in this cycle, with the ECB on hold until at least mid-2024," said Frederik Ducrozet, chief economist at Pictet Wealth Management. The post Pause or hike? ECB rate decision on a knife edge appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
‘Stagnant investments slowing Philippine economy’
The slow pace of growth in investments into the Philippines could impact the momentum of economic expansion in the country, coupled with the possibility of food prices driving up inflation yet again. In a webinar yesterday, the research arm of the Moody’s Group maintained that the Philippines would still be one of the fastest growing economies in the region, but also flagged that economic scarring has started to manifest in the country......»»
2nd State of the Nation Address
Anti-inflation measures Crafting of Medium-Term Fiscal Framework supported by Congress Implementation of strategies to capacitate economic sectors Results (1) 7.6 percent growth in 2022 — highest rate in 46 years. (2) January to March 2023 — 6.4 growth percent (within 6 to 7 percent target) (3) Philippines considered to be among fastest-growing economies in the Asian region and in the world (4) Strong and stable financial system (5) Banks have strong capital and liquidity positions. (6) Digital economy contributed P2 trillion in 2022, the equivalent of 9.4 percent of our GDP. (7) World Bank projects a 6 percent overall growth rate due to strong local demand, consumer spending, strength from the BPO industry, steady flow of remittances, and continuing jobs recovery (8) Inflation rate eased up from 8.7 percent in January to 5.4 percent in June. (9) Bureau of Internal Revenue posted P1.05 trillion collections — an increase of almost 10 percent over the last year (10) Bureau of Customs increased collection by 7.4 percent for the first seven months of 2023, amounting to P476 billion. (11) PAGCOR increased collection by 47.9 percent (12) PCSO increased collection by 20 percent Reduction of prices of commodities like rice, meat, fish, vegetables and sugar Roll out of more than 7,000 KADIWA stores nationwide that link farmers with consumers, benefited 1.8 million families Agriculture Science-based methods toward food security Revision of Fisheries Code Unify 300 farm and fisheries clusters composed of 900 cooperatives Extensive technology training like the use of local bio-fertilizers Distribution of farm machinery, tools and inclement Distribution of more than 5 million rice seedlings and other crops Fuel at fertilizer discount vouchers Geo-Agri map of farm-to-market roads Irrigated 49,000 hectares of farmlands across the country. Constructed 4,000 additional fabrication labs, production at cold storage facilities Built 24 multi-species hatcheries to increase fisheries production Anti-animal pest monitoring, medicines, and vaccines Cloud seeding and buffer stocks in preparation for El Niño 70,000 agrarian land titles distributed Signing of EO No. 4. Or New Agrarian Emancipation Act the condoned P57-billion farmers’ loans Smuggling and hoarding Days of smugglers and hoarders are numbered Water Supply Creation of Water Resources Management Office Working for legislation of Department of Water Resource Management Allocated P14.6 billion for water supply projects Completion of Wawa Bulk Water Supply Project Phase 1 Installed 6,0000 rainwater collection systems across the country Infrastructure 8.3-trillion peso “Build, Better, More” Program in progress 194 flagship projects Continuation of “Build, Build, Build” projects Infrastructure spending stays at 5 to 6 percent of GDP 1,200-kilometer Luzon Spine Expressway Network Program will effectively connect Ilocos to Bicol from 20 hours to just 9 hours of travel Under Mega-Bridge Program, 12 bridges totaling 90 kilometers will be constructed including Bataan-Cavite Interlink Bridge and the Panay-Guimaras-Negros Island Bridges, and Samal Island-Davao City Connector Bridge As of June 2023, 4,000 kilometers of roads and 500 bridges have been constructed, maintained and upgraded Completed Cebu’s Pier 88 smart port, new passenger terminal buildings of Clark Airport and Port of Calapan. North-South Commuter Railway System now in full swing Strategic financing Enactment into law of Maharlika Investment Fund Social security Funds for the social security and public health insurance intact and separate Energy and Power Generation Price of crude oil stabilized Since last year, gasoline and diesel prices have gone down by 18 to 29 percent, respectively. Built 8 new additional power plants, bringing to 17 the total number of power generation facilities Energy production increased by 1,174 megawatts. Almost half a million homes given access to electricity; 100 percent household electrification by June 2028 Renewable energy is the way forward Promotion of renewables targets 35 percent share in the power mix by 2030, and 50 percent by 2040 Opened renewable energy projects to foreign investments Since last year, an additional 126 renewable energy contracts with potential capacity of 31,000 megawatts awarded. To date, more than 1,000 active projects all over the country — 299 are solar, 187 are wind, 436 are hydroelectric, 58 are biomass, 36 are geothermal, and 9 are ocean-powered. Malampaya project is boon, energizing 20 percent of Luzon; renewal of the contract guarantees continued revenues and energy production for another 15 years Push for more gas exploration in other parts of the country Partnered with the BARMM in regard to energy exploration and development The Philippines now has a Unified National Grid with the interconnection of the Luzon, Visayas and Mindanao grids “One Grid, One Market” will enable more efficient transfers and more competitive pricing of electricity Performance review of National Grid Corporation of the Philippines to complete all of its deliverables, starting with the vital Mindanao-Visayas and Cebu-Negros-Panay interconnections. Social welfare Enough funds for underprivileged DSWD, DoLE, DepEd, TESDA and CHEd involved in providing assistance Programs like AICS, TUPAD, TVET for Social Equity, Social Pension for Indigent Senior Citizens, Cash-for-Work for PWDs, and Integrated Livelihood Program-Kabuhayan available for indigents Social protection Pension of the military and the uniformed personnel is as important, urgent, and humanitarian as that of all other civilian Filipino employees Working closely with Congress to ease the transition from the old system to the new one, to guarantee that no effects are felt by those in the uniformed services. The post 2nd State of the Nation Address appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
‘Digitalization call of today’
President Ferdinand “Bongbong” Marcos Jr. vows to fully digitalize government functions to enhance public services, contribute to the ease of doing business, and eradicate smuggling and corruption which hinder the country’s progress. During his second State of the Nation Address or SoNA, Marcos declared: “Digitalization is the call of today, not of the future, but of the present. It is here. It is needed, and it is needed today.” Marcos warned traders and hoarders of agricultural products that their days were numbered as the government seeks to “fully embrace” digitalization and online payment systems to improve public services and fight graft and corruption. “One of the reasons for the increase in prices is the involvement of smugglers, hoarders, and those who manipulate agricultural products. We will pursue and prosecute them,” Marcos said in his speech. “Their actions are truly unjust and do not align with our noble objectives; they are cheating. Not only farmers are affected, but also consumers, and that’s why we won’t tolerate such practices. The days of those smugglers and hoarders are numbered,” he added. With that, Marcos said digitalization would help reduce corruption by making it more difficult for government officials to engage in corrupt practices. The use of upgraded technology would allow the government to provide better service to the people and make it easier for businesses to operate in the country. Marcos made the recent launch of the eGov PH app an example of the government’s commitment to digitalization. The eGov PH app is a single, centralized mobile app that provides access to a wide range of government services, including business registration, permit issuance and tax payments. The government is working to improve the country’s Internet infrastructure, he said, by prioritizing the expansion of high-speed Internet to rural areas. Marcos said that passing the SIM card registration law was part of his push for digitalization. He said the law would protect mobile users in the Philippines from “risks and vulnerabilities that can lead to negative consequences.” “Digital users and consumers shall be protected from identity theft, phishing and other online scams through essential systems and safeguards, such as cybersecurity, data privacy, consumer complaint mechanisms and financial literacy campaigns,” he said. Data from the National Telecommunications Commission, or NTC, showed that as of June more than 100 million SIM cards had been registered. Marcos, meanwhile, indicated that inflation is “stabilizing” and his administration is trying to strengthen one of Asia’s strongest economies. He said he expects price pressures to reduce further by year’s end. For context, the country’s inflation rate eased to 5.4 percent in June from 6.1 percent in May and has decreased for five months in a row from its peak of 8.7 percent in January. It is also the lowest since 4.9 percent in April 2022. “The inflation rate is moving in the right direction. From 8.7 percent in January, our inflation rate, despite all the difficulties, we are transforming the economy. We are stabilizing the prices of all critical commodities,” Marcos said. He added that the macroeconomic foundations and financial structure of the country are still sound, citing the 7.6-percent economic expansion in 2022 as the “highest in 46 years.” He said the economic growth came as the country gradually reopened its borders and eased Covid-19 restrictions. “We are still considered to be among the fastest growing economies in the ASEAN and in the world. It is a testament to our strong macroeconomic fundamental systems,” he said. “The economy is revived and rejuvenated, backstopped by a favorable, enabling environment and strong rule of law,” he added. Marcos vowed the government will invest the same 5 percent to 6 percent of the gross domestic product in infrastructure to foster economic expansion. The economy grew slower by 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023, from the 8.0 percent growth in the same quarter last year and the 7.1 percent expansion in the last quarter of 2022. While the Philippines’ GDP growth rate is among the highest in Southeast Asia, it lags below that of Macau (38.0 percent) and Armenia (12.1 percent) within Asia. The post ‘Digitalization call of today’ appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Marcos: Inflation ‘stabilizing’
President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said that inflation is "stabilizing" in the country and that his administration is trying to strengthen one of Asia's strongest economies. In his annual State of the Nation Address to Congress on Monday, Marcos said that his administration expects price pressures to reduce further by year's end. The country's inflation rate eased to 5.4 percent in June from 6.1 percent in May, and has now decreased for five months in a row from its peak of 8.7 percent in January. It is also the lowest since 4.9 percent in April 2022. "Inflation rate is moving in the right direction. From 8.7 percent in January, our inflation rate, in spite of all the difficulties, we are transforming the economy. We are stabilizing the prices of all critical commodities," Marcos said. He added that the macroeconomic foundations and financial structure of the country in Southeast Asia are still sound, citing the 7.6 percent economic expansion in 2022 as the "highest in 46 years." He said the economic growth came as the country gradually reopened its borders and eased Covid-19. "We are still considered to be among the fastest growing economies in the ASEAN and in the world. It is a testament to our strong macroeconomic fundamental systems," Marcos said. "The economy is revived and rejuvenated, backstopped by a favorable, enabling environment and strong rule of law," Marcos added. The President vowed that the government would invest the same 5 percent to 6 percent of the gross domestic product on infrastructure to foster economic expansion. The Philippine economy grew slower by 6.1 percent in the first quarter of 2023, from the 8.0 percent growth in the same quarter last year and the 7.1 percent expansion in the last quarter of 2022. While the Philippines' GDP growth rate is among the highest in Southeast Asia, it lags below that of Macau (38.0 percent) and Armenia (12.1 percent) within Asia. The post Marcos: Inflation ‘stabilizing’ appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Marcos: ‘Inflation was the biggest problem we encountered’
Inflation was the biggest problem the Philippines has faced in the past year, President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. said during his second State of the Nation held at the Batasang Pambansa complex in Quezon City on Monday. “Last year, we encountered certain strong headwinds that were confronting us, along with the rest of the world -- our post-pandemic economic recovery, and the biggest problem we encountered was inflation,” Marcos Jr. said. Due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, oil prices in the country soared, triggering the rise in prices of basic commodities. The President gave the assurance that his administration is doing everything it can to transform the economy and stabilize the prices of critical commodities. “On matters of the economy, there are many things by which we have no control, but over those where we do have control, we are doing everything we can,” he said. The president added that the country’s inflation is moving in the right direction and commended his economic team for developing a medium-term fiscal framework and creating policies that will serve as the foundation of the economy in the following years. In 2022, the Philippines posted a 7.6 percent economic growth, the country’s highest growth rate in 46 years, the President said. Meanwhile, a 6.4 percent growth rate was seen in the first quarter of 2023, staying within the country’s target of 6-7 percent for 2023. Marcos Jr. said the Philippines is still among the fastest growing economies in the Asian region and in the world, and emphasized that the country’s financial system remains strong and stable. He reiterated his administration’s top priorities: investments in public infrastructure, and improving the lives of the Filipino people through food, education, health, jobs and social protection. The Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas has projected that inflation will ease further by the end of the year, with a 2.9 percent inflation rate by 2024. The post Marcos: ‘Inflation was the biggest problem we encountered’ appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Phl mulls Islamic bond issue
The Marcos administration unveiled plans to issue its first Islamic bond or sukuk, in the third quarter of this year to raise additional funds for its economic recovery initiatives, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno said. On the sidelines of the Philippine Economic Briefing in Toronto, Canada, on Thursday morning (Eastern Time), Diokno told reporters that the country eyes raising $1 billion through sukuk. National Treasurer Rosalia de Leon, for her part, said the Philippines wants to “penetrate” the Middle East market for Islamic bond issuance. However, she said that the Philippine banks still need a mandate for the transaction. De Leon added that the transaction, which could include two parts with durations of five years and 10 years, respectively, may occur later this year, depending on market conditions. “We are looking at 10 years, but we are also being advised that the sweet spot would be five years,” De Leon said. “We are working on the structure of the notes,” De Leon added. For context, Fitch Ratings said in a report earlier this week that the volume of sukuk bonds grew by 10 percent during the first 12 months ending 30 June and even exceeded $800 billion. Fitch Ratings added that the Islamic bonds could pick up in the last quarter of the year. Earlier this month, Diokno said that apart from the Islamic bonds, the government eyes selling US dollar denominated bonds to retail investors to raise $2 billion. In his speech before the PEB, Diokno expressed optimism that the country would reach its target gross domestic product growth rate of six to seven percent this year. He explained that the Philippines is among Asia’s “fastest-growing economies,” beating growth expectations in the first quarter. Gross domestic product in the three months through March rose 6.4 percent from a year earlier. Diokno added that the World Bank and International Monetary Fund recently upgraded the growth outlook on the Philippines to six percent for 2023 against the backdrop of slower growth in developed markets globally. He added that the Philippines also maintained investor-grade credit ratings. Fitch Ratings has revised its outlook on the Philippines’ BBB rating from negative to stable due to the country’s growth outlook and some macroeconomic policy framework. However, Diokno said inflation remains a concern for the country’s economic managers as the Philippines’ inflation eased for the fifth consecutive month in June 2023. The latest data showed that the country’s inflation rate hit 5.4 percent, down from 6.1 percent in May. “This slowdown in inflation suggests that the government’s inflation mitigating measures are gaining ground,” Diokno said. “In terms of policy, the Philippine government is continuously harmonizing efforts to ensure a timely analysis of the demand and supply of key commodities,” Diokno added. The post Phl mulls Islamic bond issue appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Phl eyeing to raise $1-B in Islamic bonds to fund budget deficit — Diokno
The Philippines plans to issue its first Islamic bond, or sukuk, in the third quarter of this year to fund its budget deficit, Finance Secretary Benjamin Diokno said. On the sidelines of the Philippine Economic Briefing (PEB) in Toronto on Thursday morning (Eastern Time), Diokno told reporters that the country eyes raising $1 billion in Islamic bonds. Treasurer Rosalia de Leon, for her part, said the Philippines wants to "penetrate" the Middle East market. However, she said that the Philippine banks still need to have a mandate for the transaction. De Leon mentioned that the transaction, which could include two parts with durations of 5 years and 10 years, respectively, may occur later this year, depending on market conditions. “We are looking at 10 years, but we are also being advised that the sweet spot would be five years,” de Leon said. "We are working on the structure of the notes," de Leon added. For context, Fitch Ratings said in a report earlier this week that the volume of suksuk bonds grew by 10 percent during the first 12 months ending 30 June and even exceeded $800 billion. Fitch Ratings added that the Islamic bonds could pick up in the last quarter of the year. Apart from the Islamic transaction, Diokno said earlier this month in his weekly talk to reporters that the government eyes selling US Dollar denominated bonds to retail investors raising $2 billion. Meanwhile, Diokno expressed his optimism in his speech during the PEB that the country will reach its target gross domestic product (GDP) growth of six to seven percent this year. He explained that the Philippines is among Asia's "fastest-growing economies," beating growth expectations in the first quarter. Gross domestic product in the three months through March rose 6.4 percent from a year earlier. Diokno added that both the World Bank and International Monetary Fund both upgraded the growth outlook on the Philippines just recently to 6 percent for 2023 against the backdrop of slower growth in developed markets globally. He added that the Philippines also maintained investor-grade credit ratings. For context, Fitch Ratings revised its outlook on the Philippines' BBB rating from negative to stable due to country's growth outlook and some macroeconomic policy framework. However, Diokno said inflation remains a concern for the country's economic managers as the Philippines' inflation eased for the fifth consecutive month in June 2023. The latest data showed that the country's inflation rate hit 5.4 percent, down from 6.1 percent in May. "This slowdown in inflation suggests that the government's inflation mitigating measures are gaining ground," Diokno said. "In terms of policy, the Philippine Government is continuously harmonizing efforts to ensure a timely analysis of the demand and supply of key commodities," Diokno added. The post Phl eyeing to raise $1-B in Islamic bonds to fund budget deficit — Diokno appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
England doctors stage 5-day strike
Junior doctors in England hospitals kicked off a five-day strike on Thursday to demand higher pay with their senior counterparts following suit with a 48-hour walkout on 20 July. The biggest and unprecedented strike faced by United Kingdom’s state-funded National Health Service triggered fears for patient safety. The strikers are also demanding staff retention from the NHS. Nurses, ambulance staff and other medical workers have all joined picket lines in recent months, adding to pressures on patient appointments. The bitter row between junior doctors and the government has seen them call for their 2008 to 2009 pay levels to be restored — something the government says would mean an average pay award of about 35 percent. The British Medical Association’s Junior Doctors Committee says medics have effectively had a 26-percent pay cut in real terms in the last 15 years, as salaries have failed to keep pace with soaring inflation. The government claims that backdating their pay to reflect inflation since 2008 is too costly and has instead offered an extra five percent, as it battles to reduce inflation. The post England doctors stage 5-day strike appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
US economy adds 209,000 new jobs as hiring slows
Hiring in the United States slowed in June, the Labor Department said Friday, providing a much-needed signal that the American economy is cooling ahead of another interest rate decision later this month. The figures came in below analysts' expectations, providing some respite for the US Federal Reserve as it mulls a return to interest rate hikes later this month to tackle inflation still well above its long-term target of two percent. The world's biggest economy added 209,000 jobs last month, down from a revised figure of 306,000 in May, the Labor Department said. Meanwhile, the unemployment rate edged down to 3.6 percent, remaining close to historic lows, underscoring the enduring strength of the labor market. The hiring figure came in below the median expectation of 240,000 new jobs in a survey of economists conducted by MarketWatch, while the unemployment rate was in line with predictions. All three major US stock indexes on Wall Street finished the day in the red amid growing expectations of additional interest rate hikes this year "It's a step in the right direction, but we're not near the level that we would need to see to be convinced that the labor market is significantly cooling down," Oxford Economics' lead US economist Oren Klachkin told AFP. Even with job growth easing, average hourly earnings ticked up by 0.4 percent month-over-month, rising by 4.4 percent on an annual basis. "The labor market is still very strong, wages are still rising at a very strong pace, unemployment is still very low, and nonfarm payrolls rose at a pace that is way above what the Fed wants," Klachkin said. Bidenomics in action US President Joe Biden hailed Friday's jobs report as evidence of "Bidenomics in action." "Our economy added more than 200,000 jobs last month -- for a total of 13.2 million jobs since I took office," he said in a White House statement. "That's more jobs added in two and a half years than any president has ever created in a four-year term," he added. June's new jobs came mainly from increases in employment in government, health care, social assistance, and construction, the Labor Department said. "The economy has proven remarkably resilient, with smaller businesses absorbing layoffs at larger firms," KPMG chief economist Diane Swonk wrote in a note to clients. July hike pretty certain Minutes published earlier this week of the Fed's last meeting showed that several members of its rate-setting committee supported another hike in June to tackle high inflation. Ultimately, the Federal Open Market Committee voted to pause the Fed's campaign of 10 consecutive rate increases, indicating that two additional increases would likely be needed before the end of the year to bring inflation back down. Speaking shortly after the jobs report was released on Friday morning, Chicago Fed president Austan Goolsbee suggested the US central bank had more work to do to tame inflation. "Overall the job market is outstanding, and is getting back to a well-balanced, sustainable level," he told CNBC. "The consensus of almost all the FOMC in the statement of projections is that, over this year, we will have one or two more hikes. I haven't seen anything that says that's wrong," he said. Friday's labor data underscores the likelihood the Fed will return to its campaign of interest rate hikes later this month, according to Oxford Economics' Klachkin. "Given where the data stand right now I think that a hike this month is pretty certain, and I would say that there are even risks of more hikes in the second half," he said. "The Fed is expected to raise rates at least another half percent before it pauses," KPMG's Swonk said, adding that a hike in July was "all but a done deal" at this point. Futures traders now assign a probability of more than 90 percent that the Fed will raise its base rate by a quarter percentage point at its next meeting on July 25-26, according to data from CME Group. The post US economy adds 209,000 new jobs as hiring slows appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Metrobank lowers inflation forecasts
Metropolitan Bank & Trust Co. has lowered its inflation forecasts over the next two years amid the slowdown in the pace of price increases over the past five consecutive months......»»
Biden bets on ‘Bidenomics’ for 2024 victory
President Joe Biden is gambling his 2024 re-election on a continued strong US economy and manufacturing resurgence with a speech Wednesday launching his newly branded "Bidenomics." The Democrat's speech, heavily promoted in advance by the White House, will see him take credit for a powerful US recovery from the COVID pandemic shutdown and subsequent supply chain nightmares. "You'll hear the president today talk about the fact that the United States right now..., we are leading the world in terms of the fastest, strongest economic recovery since the beginning of the pandemic among G7 countries," Principal Deputy Press Secretary Olivia Dalton told reporters. It's a bold, potentially risky move for Biden to put the economy at the center of his re-election platform, brushing aside months of warnings that the world's biggest economy might still hit a post-pandemic recession. Putting his name on it is even bolder, with "Bidenomics" deliberately echoing and refuting Republicans' long-cherished "Reaganomics," in reference to the 1980s boom under Ronald Reagan. Biden was bullish Wednesday on departure for Chicago, telling reporters at the White House that he's "been hearing every month there's going to be a recession next month." Now the consensus, he said, is that "we're not going to have a recession." 'Bidenomics' or 'Reaganomics'? So far, the sales pitch is having trouble getting through -- in large part due to the lingering inflationary pressures on a country that had grown used to low price increases. A May poll by ABC News/Washington Post even found Biden's scandal-plagued Republican predecessor -- and likely 2024 rematch rival -- Donald Trump leading by 18 percentage points on the question of who handled the economy better. But the White House says inflation is on a slow but steady decline and that "Bidenomics" is changing the playing field in a way that will benefit the middle classes. Huge spending bills passed by Congress during Biden's first two years in power are pouring money into green energy technology, semiconductors, and not less than $550 billion for revamping the country's roads, bridges, and other infrastructure. Lael Brainard, director of the National Economic Council, told reporters Tuesday that the Reagan-era trickle-down theory led to the hollowing out of US industrial cities with offshoring and abandonment of ambitious infrastructure upgrades. By contrast, Biden is using government funding as a catalyst for a "boom in private sector spending in manufacturing construction." She touted funding for the expansion of broadband internet to every corner of the United States as an echo of Franklin Roosevelt's epic electrification program to modernize the nation in the 1930s. As for getting voters to buy into the "Bidenomics" pitch, that will come as Americans start seeing the funds begin to kick in, Dalton said. "We're seeing shovels in grounds, we're seeing private investment come back to our country, we're seeing millions of jobs created. So now is the time, with all of those accomplishments, (when) the president can take this message to the American people and say this is what Bidenomics is," Dalton said. "We're just starting to feel the impact." The post Biden bets on ‘Bidenomics’ for 2024 victory appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Philippines GDP growth slows as inflation hits spending
The Philippines' economy grew more than expected in the first three months of the year, official data showed Thursday, though the pace was the slowest in two years as soaring inflation and interest rate hikes crimped consumer spending. The 6.4 percent expansion in the first three months was well down from the revised 7.1 percent enjoyed in the last quarter of 2022, which analysts said could give the country's central bank some room to step back from its monetary tightening drive. Expectations were for 6.2 percent growth. Socioeconomic Planning Secretary Arsenio Balisacan said the lower print was partly due to high inflation and last year's rate hikes, which reined in consumer spending. "Higher interest rates last year could have impacted on the consumption and investment already this year," Balisacan said in a briefing. Consumer spending slowed to 6.3 percent in the first quarter, down from 10 percent during the same period last year. The Philippine central bank raised interest rates several times last year to rein in inflation, which hit its highest level in more than a decade. "Perhaps we are starting to feel that because there are usually some lag effects," Balisacan said. Balisacan said the government remained "confident" it will hit its 6-7 percent economic growth target this year despite headwinds. The government expects that to pick up pace through 2028, to hit 6.5-8.0 percent. "High inflation remains a challenge... but the improvement in (the) business climate can counter this unintended effect," he said. The Philippines had previously trimmed its growth target as geopolitical and trade tensions, a possible global economic slowdown and typhoons could dampen economic activity. Balisacan said the ongoing conflict between Ukraine and Russia as well as tensions in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait were among the risks to the growth outlook. The post Philippines GDP growth slows as inflation hits spending appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Phl topbills Asia as global dynamo
The country will continue setting the pace for economic expansion in the region which is being considered the engine of global growth for the coming years. Based on the projections of First Metro Investment Corp. or FMIC, the investment arm of major lender Metrobank, the economy will show a robust performance in the first quarter. Figures showed that growth in employment by February reached 8.6 percent led by the services sector which increased by 11.6 percent. The latest FMIC report supported the International Monetary Fund projections that the Philippine economy will sustain its momentum and outpace other Asian countries this year. In its World Economic Outlook (April 2023), the IMF raised the country’s growth forecast from five to six percent, the highest in Asia, while, in contrast, lowering the global growth projection from 2.9 percent to 2.8 percent. Manufacturing PMI in March reflected expansion for the 14th consecutive month. National government spending on operating and capital costs also had growth of 12.2 percent for the year until April, not readily visible from the weak total public spending due to a beneficial sharp reduction in interest payments (-13.4 percent) and allotments to local government units (-14.8 percent). The inflation rate in March slowed to 7.6 percent from 8.6 percent a month earlier due to a -0.3 percent monthly decline in the consumer price index or CPI. On top of these, business sentiment jumped to 34 percent towards the first quarter from 23.9 percent in the previous quarter, and towards the next 12 months, optimism surged to 61.9 percent from 46.2 percent. “We expect a more robust economy in the first quarter compared with projections of most analysts of a GDP growth of 7.1 percent from a year ago albeit with a little downside risk,” the report noted. The income tax cut and the downward trend in inflation should provide support although the recent crude oil price surge (due to a huge OPEC production cut) would clip that partially. FMIC expects the infrastructure buildup through public-private partnerships to be a growth driver. “Government and private sector through PPP will have ramped up infrastructure spending after the usual hesitancy of agencies in the first month. In short, domestic demand will again lead the economy,” the FMIC report stated. It said external factors may drag overall growth as exports have tanked in the first three months while import volumes of petroleum products have risen due to lower prices. Inflation should ease further to an average of 6.6 percent in the second quarter compared to last year despite higher crude oil prices and weakening further to a low five percent by September. The peso-dollar rate will weaken due to the jump in petroleum product prices, the paper forecasted. Raft of infra “Apart from government and official development assistance-funded infrastructures like the Metro Manila Subway, North-South Commuter Line that is gaining traction, major PPP projects such as the North Luzon Expressway-South Luzon Expressway second connector elevated tollway, Metro Rail Transit-7, Cavite-Laguna Expressway or Calax, an extension of Light Rail Transit-1 to Cavite, among others have hurdled key obstacles. The manufacturing sector continues to show expansion both in terms of manufacturing purchasing managers’ index or PMI and volume of production index or VoPI in the first two months. Faster return of hotels and restaurants to normal after the pandemic will also help drive the sector, FMIC said. Besides, the income tax cut which started January 2023, higher employment and infrastructure spending should bolster consumer spending, the report indicated. The report added that inflation is on a downtrend and should slip to 6.2 percent by June from a year ago despite a renewed climb in prices of petroleum products. Final May rate adjustment Easing food prices will likely offset the fuel price gains. Since we do not see a decline in actual CPI in April and May, BSP will likely proceed with raising its policy rates by 25 basis points in its May meeting. However, we expect a pause thereafter, FMIC said. The post Phl topbills Asia as global dynamo appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
China reopening may cool inflation
China’s economic reopening is expected to increase supplies of goods and services that in turn could encourage Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to bring down its rate to temper inflation. Rizal Commercial Banking Corporation chief Michael Ricafort said China’s reopening could help rebalance costs and flow of production of certain goods and services after the food supply shortage pushed overall inflation up. “Global market sentiment is also supported by stronger-than-expected China exports and imports data,” he told the Daily Tribune last Friday. China is among the major exporters of fertilizers in the world, along with Russia and Ukraine whose trade activities have been impeded by the armed conflict between both countries. Department of Agriculture spokesperson Rex Estoperez said the war overseas partly increased rice prices. Record high data in January Inflation had accelerated to a record high of 8.7 percent in January before slowing to 7.6 percent last month, as food imports increased in February compared to the same month last year. Among all the import products, the volume of raw materials and intermediate goods rose to 34.7-percent share and consumer goods to 17.9 percent, according to the Philippine Statistics Authority. Meanwhile, other food and animal imports grew to $353 billion from $347 billion. To slow inflation while other authorities resolve food supply shortages, the BSP has hiked the policy rate to 6.25 percent, the highest in 15 years. Economists said there is still strong consumer demand for goods and services, except for loans to buy costlier items. They said this shows BSP rate hikes started to take effect. Ricafort said the BSP Monetary Board might keep its policy rate to match the level of the United States Federal Reserve. “The markets increased bets on Federal Reserve rate cuts by end-2023 at a faster pace than anticipated earlier during the week.” Ricafort added, “There are recent signals of a possible pause in local policy rates if headline inflation continues to ease for two to three straight months.” The government aims to slow inflation to 6 percent this year and within 2 percent to 4 percent in 2024. The post China reopening may cool inflation appeared first on Daily Tribune......»»
Credit growth hits near 4-year high in October
Credit growth continued to pick up further to hit its fastest pace in almost four years in October amid the country’s stronger-than-expected economic expansion, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas......»»
Credit growth picks up to 13.4% in September
Despite the series of interest rate hikes, credit growth accelerated further to the fastest pace in more than two years at 13.4 percent in September from 12.2 percent in August due to higher loan demand from both corporate and household borrowers, according to the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas......»»
Bank lending picks up, grows fastest in 2 years
The growth in loans disbursed by big banks accelerated to 12.2 percent in August, the fastest in more than two years, from 12 percent in July despite the series of rate hikes delivered by the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas to quell inflation......»»